Publication detail

Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning

SMEJKALOVÁ, V. JIRÁSEK, P. BURCIN, B. KUČERA, T. PLUSKAL, J. NEVRLÝ, V. ŠOMPLÁK, R.

Original Title

Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning

Type

journal article in Web of Science

Language

English

Original Abstract

The transition to a circular economy is driving dynamic changes in waste management. While many waste fractions cannot be materially recovered, energy recovery remains a viable solution. Planning a long-term sustainable system requires accurate forecasts of waste production and treatment, closely tied to population trends, which pose challenges for smaller territorial units due to data variability. This study analyses the impact of demographic projections on waste production forecasts, focusing on fractions suitable for energy recovery with the territorial detail. The output is the identification of the difference in forecasts including demography development and without this factor. In the Czech Republic, population change of approximately 0.5% is expected by 2035. Despite this, significant differences emerge at the regional and micro-regional levels. Forecasts at the micro-regional level vary by more than 10%, with the extreme case where the difference exceeds 30%. Forecasts indicate that municipal waste suitable for energy recovery will exceed 2,600 kt, while the current facility capacity in the Czech Republic is only about 750 kt. Increasing waste-to-energy facility capacities will be necessary. The findings of this study enable targeted planning of new capacities in regions with high expected waste production and thus create a sustainable system of waste management.

Keywords

waste production forecast; energy recovery; demographic trends; municipal waste; waste-to-energy; regional analysis

Authors

SMEJKALOVÁ, V.; JIRÁSEK, P.; BURCIN, B.; KUČERA, T.; PLUSKAL, J.; NEVRLÝ, V.; ŠOMPLÁK, R.

Released

15. 5. 2025

Publisher

Elsevier

ISBN

0360-5442

Periodical

Energy

Year of study

323

Number

1

State

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Pages from

1

Pages to

15

Pages count

15

URL

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225015373

BibTex

@article{BUT197533,
  author="Veronika {Smejkalová} and Petr {Jirásek} and Boris {Burcin} and Tomáš {Kučera} and Jaroslav {Pluskal} and Vlastimír {Nevrlý} and Radovan {Šomplák}",
  title="Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning",
  journal="Energy",
  year="2025",
  volume="323",
  number="1",
  pages="1--15",
  doi="10.1016/j.energy.2025.135895",
  issn="0360-5442",
  url="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225015373"
}